Monday, February 13th 2006
Experts say NZ epidemic could kill 280, 000
ANXIOUS KIWIS are stockpiling the anti-viral drug Tamiflu to protect themselves against a lethal world bird flu epidemic which experts say is inevitable.
Doctors say many patients are collecting supplies of the drug for themselves and their families.
Auckland GP Dr Simon Cotton has ordered more than $2500 worth of Tamiflu - 40 packets for himself, family, friends and colleagues.
He is convinced the epidemic will kill many New Zealanders.
"I don't think it's a question of if this will come, it's when. It could be tomorrow."
Little is known about how the virus will behave, but the Health Ministry says up to 35% of New Zealanders - 1.4 million people could be infected.
The disease has a 20% mortality rate, so up to 280,000 could die.
The government has ordered 800,000 doses, enough to cover 20% of the population. These will probably be used to treat health workers first.
Tamiflu works by stopping a flu virus from spreading and infecting other cells. It is unknown how effective it would be against the bird flu, which is now infecting Asian and Russian bird populations. Experts say it could mutate into a virulent strain easily spread among humans.
Tamiflu manufacturer Roche says prescriptions for the drug have increased about 500% in the last year on top of the government order.
Cotton said many GPs did not trust the Health Ministry to make government stocks available, so were ordering stocks themselves.
Most GPs would feel morally bound to look after their patients in an epidemic, despite the risk to themselves and their families.
Cotton said he was staggered by the lack of information for doctors on how to prepare for bird flu, or how the government was planning for the epidemic.
Britain's Department of Health is to send information packs to every GP practice with a 50-page guide on how to handle the possible epidemic and pamphlets for the public.
In Asia, doctors are worried that western countries will grab the lion's share of the drugs needed to fight a bird flu epidemic.
A Wellington mother said she asked her doctor for prescriptions for herself and her husband, her two children and her mother "as an insurance policy". She said that at about $85 for 10 tablets it had been expensive, but it was worth it for peace of mind.
Auckland GP Jonathan Simon knew several doctors and patients had asked for the drug.
Another world flu epidemic was inevitable, and most likely in a northern hemisphere winter - summer in New Zealand.
"I've got some for myself and my family and the various people attached to my family? my children are not in a high-risk category, but I want them to at least have access to it."
Simon said there was a danger people could take their Tamiflu for flu-like symptoms that were not the flu, and waste the drug.
Dr John Cameron, medical executive of ProCare, said those buying Tamiflu were throwing their $80 away and taking up precious stocks other may need.
The anti-viral needed to be taken every day during an epidemic, which was likely to come in up to five waves lasting six weeks each.
No country would have enough of the drug for its entire population, and the best weapon was isolation and containment.
The Health Ministry was working diligently to plan and prepare for pandemic control.
"Tamiflu is not a saviour. Our biggest saviour is to try to delay this virus until we have a vaccine."
Cameron had not bought any Tamiflu, but had decided if the epidemic hit, he would keep away from his family.
"It's a nasty, nasty bug. The world will survive, we will survive, but there will be deaths. We have to make sure that we minimise the impact on this country."
Roche spokesman Stuart Knight the company had delivered half the Health Ministry's 800,000-dose order, and the rest would arrive by the end of the year.
Source New Zealand Herald 21 August 2005
Footnote from Ideal Health
The following products are all useful for Immune Support:
Astra Forte
Chewable Vitamin C 500mg
Colostrum Capsules
Deer Velvet
Echinacea with Astragalus and Reishi
Formula VM 2000
Kyolic Garlic High Potency
Sambucol Immune System Formula
Superior Olive Leaf
Triplex Immune Booster
Una De Gato (Cats Claw Combination)
Yummi Bears Echinacea with Vit C & Zinc
Related health information can be found here:
Allergies
Astra Forte - the deep immune tonic
Cat's Claw, ideal for immune defense and digestive disorders
Co-enzyme Q10 is of fundamental importance for cellular energetics
Colostrum, a universal healer with immune boosting properties
Echinacea - a potent weapon against infection
Fish oils, garlic and antioxidants for the prevention & treatment of cardiovascular disease
Free radicals and antioxidants
Immunity
Sambucol
Vitamin C is essential for fighting infections, wound healing and coping with stress
Winter ailments and immune boosting
Related articles can be found here:
Health-giving broccoli the best of the bunch
Kiwis Stockpile Bird Flu Drugs
Probiotics Well Tolerated, Safe in Infant Formula
Top Marks to Water-only School
Vitamin C Use May Lower Heart Disease Risk
If you need help or advice, you are welcome to email our naturopathic team with your health question.
Disclaimer: The health information presented here has been written for the New Zealand health consumer. It is of a general nature and is only intended to provide a summary of the subjects covered. The information is not intended to be comprehensive or to provide medical advice to you. While all care has been taken to ensure the accuracy of the information, no responsibility or liability is accepted, and no person should act in reliance on any statement contained in the information provided. All health ailments should be treated by a qualified health professional.
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